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# Election: Presidential Primary Predictions
June 04 2012
Written by Randy Shaw.
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POLITICS - Many states hold elections on June 5, and the eyes of the nation are on Wisconsin. The fate of the recall effort against Governor Scott Walker has national implications, though not because, as some believe, a Walker victory spells trouble for President Obama in November.
The recall’s outcome has [**special meaning for labor activists,**](http://beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=10201) who have led the “uprising” against Walker only to see the President its national union leadership has strongly backed, avoid the fight.
California’s election also has significance for what it says about the future direction of the Democratic Party.
A series of primaries across the state pit corporate and real estate backed Democrats against progressives, as special interest groups that once gave primarily to Republicans recognize that backing “moderate” Democrats is a better investment.
Here are my predictions for June 5, and what these results mean.
**Wisconsin**
President Obama and the national Democratic Party have misjudged the Walker recall. Fearing that going all out to defeat Walker would make Obama more vulnerable in the fall if the recall failed, the President and national Party failed to use their clout to swing the election.
In contrast, Republicans recognized the recall election as a way to send a powerful national message against collective bargaining and labor unions, and have invested tens of millions of dollars accordingly.
While Republicans time and again prove their loyalty to corporate interests and wealthy donors, Obama and national Democrats never hesitate to run when a progressive constituency they claim to care about is in a fight.
If the recall wins, all is well among Democrats. But if, as many believe, it fails, expect tremendous anger to build among labor activists in Wisconsin and nationally.
This anger will be targeted not just at Obama and the national Party. It will also be targeted at the national labor leaders who continue to uncritically back both despite getting next to nothing in return.
This latest betrayal of labor supporters by Obama and the national Party comes only months before the Democratic National Convention is held in one of the most non-union hotel cities in the United States. Yet union members will be out in force, cheering for a President and national Party that ignores union interests in Wisconsin -- and most everywhere else.
**California Democrats**
The June 5 elections further reflect the ongoing fight for the “soul” of the California Democratic Party.
As California comes as close as ever before to being a one-party state, traditional funders of the Republican Party have switched their contributions to “moderate” Democrats.
Unfortunately for progressives, Assembly Speaker John Perez has become the bag man for these special interests. Bankers and real estate interests now run the state Assembly, whose Democratic legislators avoid criticism from many progressive groups because they are not Republicans.
Anti-union zealot and self-proclaimed school “reformer” Michelle Rhee has raised $2 million for her "Parents and Teachers for Putting StudentsFirst" political action committee that seeks to elect Democrats who will oppose teachers unions.
Rhee’s committee recently spent over $400,000 on television buys, polling and other services to support Democrat Brian Johnson, a charter school executive running in the open 46th Assembly District.
Because Rhee is making late expenditures, the Democratic candidates receiving of the $1.6 balance of her campaign war chest is not fully known as this is written. I was told that she made a large donation to Ian Calderon, the 26-year old son of the Assembly Majority Leader Charles Calderon and the nephew of Senator Ron Calderon, who is in a tight primary race in Assembly District 57.
When you have the state’s Democratic leadership backing conservative Betsy Butler over progressive activist Torie Osborn in Santa Monica, one of the state’s most progressive districts, we have a very serious problem.
And while Osborn will ultimately win this race in November (both will make the runoff), this should not disguise how corporate interests are making an all out effort to control California’s once progressive Democratic Party (Party Chair John Burton is as progressive as ever, but he does not control campaign donations in primary races as Perez does).
**Props 28 and 29**
Conservative interests are pouring in money to defeat Prop 28, whose chief impact would be to allow Assembly members to stay in office 12 years rather than the current six. But it may be too late, and I think this reform in the term limits law will finally prevail.
[**After expressing concern about the impact of No on 29 ads,**](http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=10183) I heard from supporters convinced the measure would prevail. My theory about initiatives is that many voters decide after reading the ballot question. Since Prop 29’s first line describes the $1 tax on cigarettes, it may remind voters what the measure is really about. I’ll go with Prop 29 winning.
INFO: California Presidential Primary Election, Tuesday June 5 … everything you need and want to know … including polling locations and elections results … at: [www.lavote.net](http://www.lavote.net).
*(Randy Shaw is the editor of [BeyondChron.org](http://BeyondChron.org) … where this column was first posted … and author of Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century).*
-cw
Tags: June Election, Primary Election, California Election, June 5 Election, Election, Prop 28, Prop 29
CityWatch
Vol 10 Issue 45
Pub: June 5, 2012
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