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# The New Labor Crisis is the Biggest Opportunity in a Generation
July 12 2021
Written by Joel Kotkin.
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LABOR WATCH-The COVID-19 pandemic has left pain and tragedy in its wake.
But it has also created a unique opportunity to address the country's persistent class divides, thanks to [a persistent lack of labor ](https://www.uschamber.com/report/the-america-works-report-quantifying-the-nations-workforce-crisis)resulting from the pandemic. In a world economy that has seen labor's [share of income drop](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/a-new-look-at-the-declining-labor-share-of-income-in-the-united-states) for generations, this labor shortage could provide some restored leverage for both white and blue collar workers.
The labor shortage was a reversal from the earlier impact of the pandemic on labor. Initially, COVID-19 devastated the working class and parts of the private sector middle class; the harsh lockdowns imposed in many places caused [upwards of one third](https://mailchi.mp/cc6db0c7c33a/smb-re-opening-report-13365712?e=64a17c95bc) of small businesses to close down permanently and decimated the service industry.
But as the economy has recovered, despite [high unemployment over 6 percent](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html) and [over 8 million fewer positions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-are-unemployed-why-cant-companies-find-workers-11620302440), there's a [shortage of workers](https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-openings-rise-despite-hiring-slowdown-11620725400), including 7.4 million [unfilled jobs](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-job-market-is-tighter-than-you-think-11619006400). And it's not relegated to any one industry. Companies like [John Deere](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2021/05/10/john-deere-co-mower-tractor-struggles-hire-jobs-iowa-demand-agricutlure-equipment-booms/5000633001/), its order book strong due to a worldwide surge in commodity prices, are struggling to find workers willing to take jobs in its Iowa factories, a phenomenon [common across](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/28/business/economy/factories-manufacturing-economy.html) the industrial economy. We're seeing a [massive shortage of virtually every kind of labor](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/job-paradox-baffles-economists-as-u-s-employers-see-shortage/ar-BB1gpRNx), including blue collar jobs. What this means is that companies have to work harder to attract workers; even [fast-food restaurants](https://www.yahoo.com/money/expert-great-wage-revolt-among-restaurant-workers-193807846.html) like [McDonald's](https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-the-new-signing-bonus-11624680029?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h) are offering [low end service workers](https://www.wsj.com/articles/restaurants-serve-up-signing-bonuses-higher-pay-to-win-back-workers-11619359201) signing bonuses, higher wages and more humane working conditions.
And the blue-collar jobs gusher could just be beginning. [Arvind Kaushal](https://www.kornferry.com/content/dam/kornferry/docs/article-migration/TheNewMathforManufacturers.pdf), leader of the manufacturing practice at Booz & Company, has estimated that as many as 600,000 new manufacturing jobs cannot be filled. The current [shortage of welders](https://www.tradesmeninternational.com/construction-management/welder-shortage/) alone is expected to grow to 400,000 by 2024. Much the same can be said about logistics, which basically kept the country running amidst the pandemic lockdowns: [A shortage of tanker drivers](https://www.ketk.com/news/consumer-reports/lack-of-tanker-truck-drivers-could-lead-to-gas-shortages-this-summer/) threatens gas deliveries this summer. The shortfall is now so severe [that Amazon](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/in-need-of-truckers-amazon-plans-incubator-to-create-more-shipping-companies) has set up its own incubator for new trucking companies.
Moreover, the shift to work from home that the pandemic birthed represents a huge opportunity for white collar workers. Once dragooned into offices far from affordable homes, many office workers have embraced [new hybrid models](https://news.yahoo.com/whats-the-future-of-work-home-office-or-something-new-124132550.html), working remotely not only from home but from [dispersed offices and coffee shops](https://www.upwork.com/press/releases/economist-report-remote-work-and-socialization). [Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom](https://news.stanford.edu/2020/06/29/snapshot-new-working-home-economy/) has suggested at least 20 percent of the workforce will work remotely even after the pandemic ends, up from 5.7 percent in 2019. And there's [evidence that](https://www.apollotechnical.com/working-from-home-productivity-statistics/) remote workers have been [more productive](https://venturebeat.com/2020/05/17/4-things-this-ceo-didnt-expect-about-remote-work-life/), with [many executives](https://www.newgeography.com/content/006597-the-future-office-space-real-estate-market) surprisingly pleased with the results.
Besides surprising [productivity gains](https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/what-executives-are-saying-about-the-future-of-hybrid-work) registered during the pandemic, many workers are creating an [enhanced "life-work balance](https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-numbers-tell-us-about-work-right-now-11607907601)" thanks to remote working. This is critical to millennials and [women with children](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nearly-1-5-million-mothers-are-still-missing-from-the-workforce-11619472229) trying to get back into the labor force once schools reopen. And they're not willing to give it up now that the pandemic is over; [in a recent survey](https://apartmentlist.orcallisto.com/api/mailings/click/PMRGSZBCHI3TCNRWGUZCYITVOJWCEORCNB2HI4DTHIXS653XO4XGC4DBOJ2G2ZLOORWGS43UFZRW63JPOJSXGZLBOJRWQL3SMVWW65DFFV3W64TLFVWW65TJNZTS24DSMVTHGLLTOVZHMZLZEIWCE33SM4RDUIRUMQYTIYRXMUZC2M3GMY2C2NDFHE2C2OLBMVQS2NBVGM3DOMZUGRTDINRZEIWCE5TFOJZWS33OEI5CENBCFQRHG2LHEI5CEODQOA3XAQZUNU4HGWCTMZ3UWMLTNJ5DM6RUOZIGOWSOGZ5EIR2MMN2VE3KVKFDU4NKTJU6SE7I=) of over 5,000 employed adults, four in 10 American workers expected some level of remote work flexibility post-pandemic.
Read the rest of this piece at [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/new-labor-crisis-biggest-opportunity-generation-opinion-1607500).
Joel Kotkin is the author of [*The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class*](https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Neo-Feudalism-Warning-Global-Middle/dp/1641770945/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2TP1Y6WOZ8CEQ&dchild=1&keywords=the+coming+of+neo-feudalism&qid=1586795467&sprefix=the+coming+of+neo+%2Caps%2C150&sr=8-1). He is the Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at [joelkotkin.com](http://joelkotkin.com) and follow him on Twitter [@joelkotkin](https://twitter.com/joelkotkin).
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