Karen Bass Is Collapsing But Does Los Angeles Know What It’s Getting With Nithya Raman?

THE BOTTOM LINE - Bass is hemorrhaging voter confidence. But rejecting the incumbent and embracing Raman’s political agenda are two very different things.

Los Angeles voters appear ready to fire Karen Bass.

The more consequential question is whether they understand what they may be hiring in her place.

A new California Poll survey of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 15–18, paints a devastating picture for the incumbent mayor. Councilmember Nithya Raman leads Bass 46.7% to 38.8%.

But Raman's lead isn't the most alarming number for Bass.

A staggering 71.7% of likely voters disapprove of Bass' performance. Only 25.5% approve. Meanwhile, 70.3% view her unfavorably, compared with just 27.3% favorably.

That isn't ordinary political dissatisfaction. It is a collapse of confidence.

And it isn't difficult to understand why.

Los Angeles has become brutally expensive while many residents believe basic government isn't delivering. Housing costs are punishing. Taxes are high. Homelessness remains visible throughout the city. Families struggle with groceries, utilities, insurance, and transportation while wondering what they are receiving in return.

The poll captures that frustration.

Homelessness is a major concern for 47.3% of voters, followed by the cost of living at 41.7% and housing costs at 35.4%.

Even more devastating for Bass, 66.2% believe Los Angeles is headed in the wrong direction. Just 16.4% say it is on the right track.

And 42% say they have considered leaving Los Angeles altogether. That should terrify every politician at City Hall.

This election is becoming less about traditional left-versus-right politics and more about a simpler question: Does Los Angeles still work for the people who live here?

Right now, voters appear to be answering no.

And they are holding Bass responsible.

But anger at Bass should not become a blank check for Raman.

That is where this election becomes far more interesting.

Raman has managed to become the candidate of change despite serving at City Hall since 2020. More importantly, she appears to have captured something Bass has lost: a connection with frustrated voters.

According to the poll, 37% believe Raman "cares" about people like them. Only 23% say the same about Bass.

That may be the most politically dangerous number of all for the mayor.

But there is a remarkable contradiction inside Raman's support.

The poll finds 41% of voters describing Raman as "extreme," compared with only 16% who say that about Bass.

Some voters apparently believe Raman is extreme and intend to vote for her anyway.

That tells us as much about Bass' collapse as it does about Raman's rise.

Raman has been backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, an organization considerably to the left of the traditional Democratic establishment. Yet even the DSA performs surprisingly well in this survey: 44.2% view it favorably, while 41.3% view it unfavorably.

Among voters under 55, support is even stronger.

Los Angeles therefore may be approaching something much bigger than a routine change of mayor.

It could be approaching an ideological realignment of City Hall.

That makes scrutiny of Raman's agenda essential.

How would she address homeless encampments while protecting sidewalks, parks, and public spaces?

How would her housing policies affect renters, homeowners, and development?

What would her approach to policing mean for public safety?

And how would she make Los Angeles more affordable without imposing new costs that eventually land back on residents?

Those aren't partisan questions. They are questions anyone seeking to govern America's second-largest city should answer.

Bass, meanwhile, cannot simply warn voters that Raman is too far left.

When nearly three-quarters of voters disapprove of your performance, "the other candidate is worse" isn't much of a reelection strategy.

Bass must explain what went wrong and why another four years would be different.

Raman should face an equally demanding test. She cannot be allowed to campaign merely as the beneficiary of Bass' failures. She must tell voters exactly what she would do with power.

Los Angeles deserves that debate.

Because voters increasingly appear trapped between a mayor, they have stopped believing in and a challenger whose ideology many may still be trying to understand.

Karen Bass' greatest political problem is no longer Nithya Raman.

It is Los Angeles itself.

The city is angry. It is exhausted. It is expensive. And voters appear increasingly willing to gamble on dramatic change.

Raman understands that anger better than Bass has.

That could make her the next mayor of Los Angeles.

But before voters choose a revolution because they are furious with the status quo, they should answer one final question:

Are we voting for Nithya Raman because we want her agenda or simply because we have had enough of Karen Bass?

On November 3, the answer could reshape Los Angeles for years to come.

(Mihran Kalaydjian is a seasoned public affairs and government relations professional with more than twenty years of experience in legislative affairs, public policy, community relations, and strategic communications. A respected civic leader and education advocate, he has spearheaded numerous academic and community initiatives, shaping dialogue and driving reform in local and regional political forums. His career reflects a steadfast commitment to transparency, accountability, and public service across Los Angeles and beyond.)