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ACCORDING TO LIZ - It was supposed to be 60 days of peace, perhaps more if Trump and Netanyahu could be persuaded to put their egos on hold and let the more rational negotiators on all sides work their magic.
But its success seems tenuous given the personalities and passions of the disparate parties.
Because the Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) released this week contains none of the objectives Trump was looking for when he started his illegal attack on Iran: the destruction of Iran’s ability to wage war; the crushing of its nuclear ambitions; the end of its theocratic leadership; and the liberation of its people.
Will the president’s bitterness at being so embarrassed allow him to be shamed into acceptance of such a crushing defeat in front of Republican hawks and Democrats appalled by his wanton waste of taxpayer money and the American self-image as great or even good?
But this tragedy didn’t start at the negotiation table.
It started with a Democratic Party leadership at odds with its base and with the progressive wing that has been attempting to return the party to its roots.
The DNC's hubris in thinking it could push through the puppet Biden and then Harris to do the bidding of Wall Street and AIPAC, led inevitably to the election of Trump. And Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
Curtain: Act One.
It continued with the know-nothing political panderers Trump anointed to the cabinet and other positions of power, the Federalist Society-stacked Supreme Court, plus the Musk-enabled evisceration of reasonable government.
Add in the Republican majorities’ boot-licking acceptance of the shredding of American society through the Bloated Bastard Budget, the unleashing of ICE, the rending of alliances through withdrawal from treaties, the irrational imposition of tariffs, and the gutting of funding for international programs keeping America great in the eyes of the rest of the world.
And the implicit endorsement of White House-sanctioned kidnapping and murder.
All virtually unchecked, as attacks on free speech, mislabeling of any opponent as “antifa,” burgeoning internal scandals, obvious conflicts of interest and outright corruption snared the attention of the news media.
Trump’s further draining of the public purse for ego-enhancing presidential projects and constant lawsuits – his own and his pet DoJ’s, the settlements and costs for which will inevitably come out of the pockets of the American taxpayer, only serve to depress the electorate even further.
End of Act Two.
Let the curtain rise on Act Three.
Like in Shakespeare’s MacBeth, a play that exposed the physically violent and damaging psychological effects of political ambitions and power, there can be no happy ending.
When the MOU penny dropped, it was not the enemy’s unconditional surrender of Trump’s dream. It was an inversion, with virtually no concessions from Tehran. An epochal capitulation: a tragedy far, far greater than when Gerald Ford brought the Vietnam War to a close with the evacuation of Saigon, and American troops returned with their tails between their legs not the conquering heroes they set out to be.
Not the blaze of glory for which Trump was grasping.
It begins with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping after the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports effectively choked off much of the world’s oil, as well as fertilizers desperately needed for the growing of food. Energy prices have soared, and the global economy has suffered.
Tehran effectively demonstrated it has the power to disrupt trade there any time it wants to and has become, in the eyes of many, an example of necessary defiance, and courage.
Point one to the Iranians.
The MOU’s lack of language repudiating a permanent toll for commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is de facto American acceptance of Iran’s plan to charge “service fees” for safe passage.
Score now two-zero.
Bumping up prices all the way down to consumers which makes Trump’s promise of lower gas prices in the United States a chimera. American producers will always pursue the higher overseas prices pushing up all domestic costs and removing any chance of the president’s promised political boon for the midterm elections.
Three-zip against the Americans.
Trump really, really wanted the win. He campaigned on a platform of “America First” and a cessation of spiraling inflation. Now his approval ratings have hit new lows; now some Republicans have broken with him in advance of the midterms.
Economists say higher prices for gas, food and more in the United States will most likely persist for months even when real peace, not just the promise, comes.
The promise of $300 billion to reconstruct Iranian infrastructure is being skewed by Trump as an opportunity for American investment.
Sure.
Like the crony capitalist reconstruction of Gaza, it will clearly come at a steep cost to American taxpayers already lumbered with the costs of Trump’s multiple wars, his inflationary ICE and private prison budgets, the impacts of tariffs on American consumers, and the backlash from countries round the world.
Furthermore, the World Bank predicts slower economic growth globally while inflation keeps ticking up everywhere.
Tehran: four. Trump: nada.
On the military front Netanyahu, who was not involved in the negotiations, and his ongoing strikes on Hezbollah, persist in undermining this fragile peace which is predicated on an end to military operations everywhere in the region. Including Lebanon.
Netanyahu so far says he has no intention of withdrawing his forces.
Negotiations on nuclear arms over the next 60 days will be a slippery slope given both the Israeli prime minister and the American president have taken hard-line positions.
Trump and Netanyahu initiated this illegal war to make sure that Iran would never, ever develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran contends that its ambitions are to develop nuclear power for civilian use only.
Iran’s touted promise to not build nuclear weapons is ridiculously redundant, because it’s already signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Israel is not. And claims it has no nuclear program despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary.
Obama’s 2015 agreement with Iran gave Tehran relief from American financial sanctions in exchange for significant reductions in its nuclear program. Trump pulled out of that in 2018 which led to Iran reneging on its commitment.
Trump has no desire to return to Obama-land but needs the nuclear issue to go away for the peace to hold.
Think that makes it five to nothing.
Tehran wants those sanctions lifted and immediate access to billions of frozen Iranian assets sitting in foreign banks.
This deal states that “immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding” the Treasury Department will issue waivers for Iran’s oil and petrochemical industries, as well as for “all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.”
Furthermore, it requires that “frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available” before any comprehensive settlement is signed.
Now it’s six-zip. Game and set.
Don’t hold your breath; there may be a multitude of encores before the curtain falls for the final time. A lot hinges on how unhinged Netanyahu and his crazy cronies respond to the call for an “immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
Trump opined Iran has “rational” leadership now because of the U.S.-Israeli attacks; realistically, it is the American president who has acted irrationally in the eyes of the world.
At the G7 meeting in Évian, France, while accepting kudos for the nascent peace in the Middle East, Trump rejected American support for Ukraine claiming the U.S. could have “nothing to do” with an event happening “thousands of miles away.”
Huh?
Iran has accrued international power, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on its terms, damaged the American economy, gutted Trump’s domestic power, held on to its nuclear program, and expects imminent lifting of financial sanctions.
Sounds like match to me.
Trump lost face – both internationally and here at home.
And his image doesn’t benefit from his pontificating, “If they don't behave, we will go right back to dropping bombs right smack in middle of their heads,” nor with Hegseth threatening that the U.S. will recommence attacks and the blockade if, “Iran does not do what it says it’s going to do.”
As Michelle Goldberg wrote in the New York Times, “This is an administration capable of immense, epic destruction, but unable to create much besides spectacle.”
(Liz Amsden is a former Angeleno now living in Vermont and a regular CityWatch contributor. She writes on issues she’s passionate about, including social justice, government accountability, and community empowerment. Liz brings a sharp, activist voice to her commentary and continues to engage with Los Angeles civic affairs from afar. She can be reached at LizAmsden@hotmail.com.)
